Ericsson: there are three different waves of net withdrawal around the world.
Organized and released on January 4, 2022: the ten-year special issue of Ericsson Mobile Market report (hereinafter referred to as "the report") predicts that 5G will cover about 75% of the world's population by the end of 2027, and 5G is still expected to become the fastest mobile technology in history.
The report also points out that Network sunsets will become a reality. Ericsson believes that with the continued expansion of the global 4G and 5G networks and the corresponding capacity improvement, the "surrender" and shutdown of traditional technologies (i.e. 2G/3G) have become unstoppable. The network can be further enhanced by releasing more 4G and 5G bands.
Ericsson concluded in its report that there have been three different waves of "net withdrawal" around the world:
The first wave of "off the net": mainly means that parts of North America, Northeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand are shutting down 2G networks, which has been going on for a long time. The next step is the withdrawal of 3G, which is expected to be around 2025.
The second wave of "withdrawal": Western Europe is more dependent on 2G, so the second wave of "withdrawal" begins with the withdrawal of 3G. This trend is expected to continue until around 2025, synchronized with the withdrawal of 3G in the first wave of "withdrawal". The second step is the withdrawal of 2G, which is not expected to be completed until around 2030. Technologies such as spectrum sharing enable 2G to be maintained and preserved on a very "thin" level. This wave of "net withdrawal" also includes parts of Southeast Asia and other parts of North America.
The third wave of "net withdrawal": including regions of the world with low penetration of 4G and 5G technologies, mainly in Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and other parts of Southeast Asia. In these areas, 3G will continue to be crucial to the provision of mobile broadband in the coming years. Both 2G and 3G may withdraw from the service and the network around 2030. The exception is the GCC countries, whose plans fall somewhere between the first wave and the second wave.
