Analyst Guo Mingyi: Xiaomi's mobile phone shipments will decline by 8% to about 140 million units in 2023.

Thanks to CTOnews.com netizen Colorful M for the clue delivery! CTOnews.com February 10 news, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingyi released the latest survey report that Xiaomi smartphone shipments in 2023 may be lower than market expectations, and Xiaomi inventory is as high as 12-16 weeks, indicating that the market is still too optimistic about the recovery of Xiaomi / Android mobile phone shipments.

Mr Guo said Xiaomi's mobile phone shipments were expected to decline by 80-10 per cent YoY to about 140m in 2023 (compared with the market consensus of 150m-165m).

Xiaomi's production plans in 1Q23 and 2Q23 are weak at about 2300-25 million and 2000-23 million respectively and there is still no sign of a significant improvement in 3Q23 production plans.

Xiaomi currently has a stock of about 4000-50 million handsets and spare parts, as high as 12-16 weeks, which is still a gap from the healthy level of inventory (within about 6 weeks), indicating that market expectations that Xiaomi's mobile phone inventory will be revised to a reasonable level in 1H23 may still be over-optimistic. At present, the inventory removal efficiency of Xiaomi is still low, and it may be unprofitable if Xiaomi wants to accelerate the inventory removal.

Although optimistic about the ChatGPT / AI trend, it is believed that Xiaomi will not easily become the main beneficiary of this trend in the next 1-2 years.

According to Omdia, Q4 Xiaomi shipped 33 million units in 2022, still the third largest smartphone manufacturer in the world, but down 18% from 41 million in the previous quarter and 26.5% from 45 million last year.

CTOnews.com learned that in November last year, Xiaomi Group announced its results for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2022, with a total revenue of 70.5 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, including 829 million yuan for innovative business such as smart electric vehicles. In the third quarter, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments increased again on a month-on-month basis, with 40.2 million units shipped and smartphone business revenue of 42.5 billion yuan.