The rise of generative AI, Goldman Sachs predicts that 300 million jobs in major economies will be affected
CTOnews.com, March 28 (Xinhua)-- Goldman Sachs Group Research says the latest breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI) may automate 1/4 of work in the United States and the euro zone, according to the Financial Times. The investment bank said on Monday that "generative" AI systems such as ChatGPT could create content indistinguishable from human output, trigger a productivity boom and eventually increase global GDP by 7 per cent within a decade.
But Joseph Briggs and Devis Kodnani, the report's authors, said the technology could also wreak "significant havoc" on the labour market, putting the equivalent of 300 million full-time workers in large economies at risk of automating their jobs. Lawyers and administrators will be one of the groups most likely to be replaced.
Based on data on tasks commonly performed in thousands of occupations, they calculated that about 2/3 of jobs in the United States and Europe are at risk of some degree of AI automation.
Most people automate less than half of their workload and are likely to continue their work, some of which is freed up for more productive activities.
In the United States, where about 63% of jobs are automated, these employees are likely to continue their current jobs and can use automation to save time and improve productivity. The other 30% of people engaged in physical or outdoor work will not be affected. But about 7 per cent of American workers can do at least half of their tasks by generative AI and are easy to replace. Goldman Sachs said its research pointed to a similar impact in Europe.
Globally, given the larger proportion of manual workers in developing countries, it is estimated that about 1/5 of the work can be done by artificial intelligence, and about 300 million jobs will be affected.
The report sparked discussion about the potential of artificial intelligence technologies that can both restore productivity growth in rich countries and create new deprived white-collar workers who are likely to suffer a similar fate to manufacturing workers in the 1980s.
CTOnews.com notes that a paper published last week by GPT-4 developer OpenAI found that at least 10 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of the US workforce can be done by generative AI, according to analysis by human researchers and the company's machine large language model (LLM).
