Morgan Stanley: with the soaring 200% Nvidia as the weather vane, the AI bubble is nearing its peak

According to the news on the evening of August 7, Beijing time, Nvidia has soared more than 200% so far this year, and Morgan Stanley believes that if it is used as a bellwether of the artificial intelligence stock bubble, then the bull market is nearing its peak.

Edward Stanley, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note that in a historical context, the current rally is "coming to an end": "bubbles usually have a median increase of 154 per cent in the three years before they peak."

While Nvidia has been a model of the AI boom, Stanley points out that plate benchmarks such as MSCI USA IMI Robotics & AI Select Net USD Index have risen much more modestly. The index rose 46% over the same period.

Nvidia is at the heart of this year's AI craze, and the company's optimistic outlook proves that investment in AI computing has contributed to revenue growth.

Stocks across the industry do not have uniform characteristics. Therefore, given the particularity of individual stocks, Stanley said, "the conclusions about the speed at which bubbles rise and fall are only useful or fair at the index level."