Guo Mingyi said that ASML cut next year's EUV equipment shipments, with an estimated decline of 20-30%.

Thanks to CTOnews.com netizens Wu Yanzu in South China for the delivery of clues! CTOnews.com Sept. 28, Guo Mingyi said in the latest market research briefing that ASML may reduce EUV equipment shipments in 2024, with an estimated decline of 20-30%. The current industry consensus is that the semiconductor industry bottomed out in the second half of 2023, but does not rule out the possibility of a delay to the first half of 2024 or the second quarter of 2024.

Guo Mingyi believes that there are mainly the following reasons for ASML's sharp reduction in EUV equipment shipments:

Apple's demand for 3nm next year will be lower than expected. Apple shipped 17 million iPads in 2023, down 30% from a year earlier. Apple's MacBook shipments are expected to be 48 million in 2023, down 22% from a year earlier. CTOnews.com note: the significant decline is due to the end of WFH demand and the gradual decline in the attractiveness of new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED) to users. Looking forward to 2024, due to the lack of growth-driven growth in MacBook and iPad, it is not conducive to Apple 3nm demand.

Qualcomm's 3nm demand in 2024 was lower than expected because Huawei will stop purchasing Qualcomm chips and Exynos 2400 has a higher-than-expected penetration rate on Samsung phones.

Samsung's 3GAP + and Intel's 20A demand is lower than expected.

Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix will not have memory expansion plans until 2025-2027 at the earliest.