Well-known analyst: the 17th cycle fluctuation of the semiconductor industry has officially arrived, and the "super boom" has come to an end.

According to the website, Malcolm Penn, a well-known semiconductor industry analyst, said a few days ago that data from sources such as WSTS confirmed that the global semiconductor market fell into a rare downturn in June, marking the end of the current super business cycle and the 17th cycle fluctuation in history has officially arrived.

Penn analysis said that the decline in PC and smartphone shipments has begun to have an impact on upstream semiconductor production, a number of second-line foundry and IDM companies reported a decline in capacity load, slowing the pace of production expansion, he also revealed that some wafer factories have re-offered discounts for new orders to maintain their capacity utilization.

Penn also said that although TSMC is still in a dominant competitive position, it is difficult to avoid cyclical effects in the coming year. TSMC will need to weigh carefully if it continues to raise prices or face accusations from customers and competitors about abuse of monopoly.

According to Penn forecast, after global IC shipments and ASP both decline in June, the impact will be transmitted to new orders, and the intensive opening of new capacity in wafer factories will further aggravate the changes in supply and demand.

Penn said that based on current market data, its May update of its forecast of a 22 per cent contraction in the IC market in 2023 is likely to be further revised down.

"the prices of some chips have plummeted! 200 yuan down to 20 yuan. "

Analyst: memory prices have fallen sharply, resulting in an unprecedented decline in IC chip sales in June.