Organization: global semiconductor revenue Q1 is expected to decline 13.8% year-on-year, Q4 to positive growth

CTOnews.com, February 16, International data Corporation (IDC) estimates that due to inventory adjustments and weak demand, global semiconductor revenue is expected to decline 13.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. It is not expected to turn to positive growth until the fourth quarter, and total revenue for the whole year will decline by 5.3%.

At the online seminar on global semiconductor market outlook held by IDC today, MarioMorales, president of the Global Semiconductor and enabling Technology Research Group, said that inventory adjustment began in the first half of 2022 and continued into the second half of 2022, and is expected to bottom out in the first half of 2023, according to the Taiwan Central News Agency.

MarioMorales predicts that global semiconductor revenue will fall 13.8 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, 12.5 per cent in the second quarter, 0.6 per cent in the third quarter and 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.

In terms of foundry, revenue performance will be relatively stable and is expected to decline slightly by 1.8%. CTOnews.com learned that MarioMorales said TSMC is expected to outperform the semiconductor industry because of its leading position in advanced process technology. Wafer foundry revenue is expected to grow by 18.6% to $143.8 billion (currently about 985.03 billion yuan) in 2024, approaching $194.7 billion (currently about 1.33 trillion yuan) in 2026, and a compound growth rate of 15.2% from 2021 to 2026.

In addition, global semiconductor revenue is expected to pick up in 2024, reaching $646 billion (currently about 4.43 trillion yuan), a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, and revenue of $726 billion (currently about 4.97 trillion yuan) in 2026. Semiconductor revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of about 4.5% from 2021 to 2026.