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Is China's electric car bubble about to burst? Japanese netizens talk about the future of Chinese trams

2024-04-25 Update From: SLTechnology News&Howtos shulou NAV: SLTechnology News&Howtos > IT Information >


Shulou( Report--

When it comes to the performance of Japanese cars in China's new energy market, I believe many people have the same impression as me, "backward", "slow" and "quickly finished".

In the perception of many people, at least in public opinion, the pure trams made by Japanese car brands that once needed to be snapped up by price increases are "a whole generation behind" compared with the new forces of car-building, whether in terms of products, technology, or thinking. it can even be said that they are completely two species.

The author can't help but wonder how the Japanese media or netizens view the current trend of electrification. After all, in the past, Japanese cars have led the development of fuel vehicles for a long time, with a strong accumulation of technology; coupled with the fact that the Japanese are known for being "vigilant", Japanese car companies are unlikely to sit idly by.

However, as soon as I opened the mainstream Japanese website, the author was shocked at once. Indeed, Japan is not waiting to die, it is just waiting for "Chinese new energy car companies to close down". For example, on the hot international news search list of Yahoo in Japan on December 4, "car companies have successively gone bankrupt, China's electric car bubble is about to burst", and ranks second in popularity, second only to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Is China's electric vehicles going bankrupt collectively? The author opened a web page in a trembling place, thinking that he wanted to see some great "melon". Sure enough, the author's common sense was subverted at the beginning of the article.

"China wants to revive the dead through electric cars, but only a few car companies, such as BYD, are the exception. Chinese car companies go bankrupt collectively. Although there are a lot of advertisements, in fact, no one buys streetcars and there is a mountain of inventory. BYD has also begun to export overseas, but it can't sell at all except Russia and Africa."

If this paragraph hadn't mentioned China and BYD, I would have thought I was talking about the current situation of Japanese car companies. If what the article says is true, then China's new energy vehicles are indeed not far from bankruptcy. Surprised, the author hastened to check the data to confirm. It so happens that on the same day, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, released data on China's new energy vehicles in November. China sold 940000 new energy vehicles in November, an increase of 29% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month. From January to November this year, a total of 7.74 million cars were wholesale, an increase of 35% over the same period last year. I don't know where to start if no one buys trams at all.

In addition, according to official figures, BYD's exports reached 30629 in November alone, and they are distributed to more than 70 countries and regions around the world. In addition to Russia and Africa, Yuan PLUS is also the top seller of new energy vehicles in Thailand, Singapore, Brazil and other places.

Of course, the most eye-catching thing is the bankruptcy of Chinese car companies. Then the author was surprised to find that, in addition to the sensational at the beginning, only some bankrupt car companies were listed, such as Evergrande, Baiteng, Aichi, Reading, Singularity, Sailin and so on. Finally, the author concluded that "BYD has also been launched in Japan, but at least I have never seen BYD's car on the street," implying that even BYD is not working. Of course, it is not surprising not to see BYD now. After all, the Meiji Restoration will not be available until 20 years after the Black Boat sailed.

However, many Japanese netizens will instinctively agree with the article.

One netizen agreed that Chinese electric cars are "similar to Japanese motorcycles in the past. At its peak, there were more than 200 Japanese motorcycle companies, but only four survived. When the era of production and sale is over, it will enter a cruel survival phase."

China also has a consensus on the knockout stages of electric vehicles. For example, Wang Xing, founder of Meituan, predicted that the future domestic automobile pattern in China may be "three central enterprises, three state-owned enterprises, three private enterprises, and three new forces." there are 12 car companies, and many other car companies will be eliminated. But this is only the head effect of the automobile industry, after all, no matter Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States, there will eventually be only a few automobile giants to dominate the whole market, and the situation of the rise of Chinese car brands has not changed.

What is Japan worried about electric cars? After reading the article, I realized that the Japanese Internet is now full of title parties, the title and the beginning are sensational to cater to the readers, but there is actually no content. However, this article may not be worth mentioning, but such an article can top the list of hot Japanese international news, with so much discussion that it is as hot as the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Of course, in addition to those emotional messages shouting that "I can't do it in China", Japanese netizens still have a lot of rational discussions, from which we can see a perception of electric cars in Japan as a whole.

First of all, there is a comparison of calculating the cost of oil and electricity.

The netizen calculated the cost of oil cars and trams in Japan by comparing Tesla with the Toyota Prius. " If you convert the electricity bill to the price of gasoline, the electric car is equivalent to 30km / L, which is almost the same as the hybrid car. So, which would you choose, a tram that can only run 300~500km on a full charge, or an oil car full of fuel that can run 1000km? And the trolley takes 30 minutes to recharge, 2 million yen (about 100000 yuan) for battery replacement, and the repair cost of hybrid cars is about 10% of that of trams. I don't see any advantage of trams at this stage. "

This calculation seems to make sense. From the perspective of national conditions, if the electricity price in Japan is high and hybrid cars are cheap, trams do not have an advantage. However, the cost of trams in China is less than 1/4 of that of gas cars, and it is more cost-effective. In terms of battery maintenance, the mainstream car companies now have a warranty period of at least eight years, and many car companies even provide a lifetime three-electricity warranty. This concern can be solved with the improvement of the tram industry.

Secondly, what is highly liked is the analysis of the power grid pressure from the technical level.

The former electrical engineer raised technical questions about the replenishment of trams. In his view, "No matter how thin the battery is and how fast the battery is charged, there are some problems that cannot be solved in theory." Because the short-term electricity supply is too large, the current power grid is powerless. For example, if you charge the 100kw for an hour, you need the transformer capacity of the 150KVA, if you want to fill the phone for 10 minutes, you need the transformer capacity of the 1000KVA, if you charge three or four at the same time, the power will exceed the 2000kw, and you need an ultra-high voltage of 66000 volts.

To put it simply, the electrical engineer believes that in theory, if everyone uses the overcharging station at the same time in a short period of time, the grid load will be too large to move. Indeed, if you want to develop electric cars, this is a big problem that must be solved. Even in China, the problem is the same. After all, the transformer capacity of ordinary residential areas in China is only about 150KVA to 500KVA, which can not meet everyone's needs.

Of course, there is no solution. One way is to upgrade the power grid. For example, in September this year, China announced that it would invest 2 trillion yuan in power grid upgrading in the next few years, and the European Union also announced not long ago that it would invest 4.5 trillion yuan to upgrade the EU power grid. Another way is to promote the power exchange mode. The power exchange mode can play the role of storage battery and help the power grid to "cut the peak and fill the valley", so as to cushion the pressure of the power grid. For example, recently, Changan, Geely and other car companies have cooperated with Xilai Automobile in the field of power exchange, which can be said to be the layout in the field of power exchange.

Third, some netizens believe that China's policy has brought about the growth of electric vehicles.

For example, this netizen said that the popularity of trams in China is mainly due to the effect of the green card policy. China's first wave of rapid growth, thanks to the demand for chauffeured cars and taxis, including Didi, as well as the demand of the wealthy, has also led to the polarization of China's trams, on the one hand, very cheap trams used by taxis, on the other hand, luxury trams for the wealthy. Either way, it will only be popular in big cities. With the reduction in the price of electric cars, surplus vehicles can only be exported.

I have to say that this kind of analysis was really pertinent a few years ago. After all, the first wave of tram buyers in China was indeed rich, as well as taxi drivers and chauffeured drivers. However, this situation is only an early stage. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 38% this year. Pure trams ranging from less than 100000 yuan to more than 300000 yuan are in blowout development, and ordinary families will consider new energy vehicles first.

Of course, some netizens do point out that Chinese public opinion rarely mentions the issue of security.

For this netizen, vehicles such as the SUV of pure trams are heavier, the friction between tires and asphalt will increase, and a large amount of dust and garbage will have an impact on people's health. If you don't make healthier tires and healthier asphalt, you can't say that trams are environmentally friendly.

Tire dust is indeed an issue that needs attention. Not long ago, in addition to conducting countervailing investigations on electric vehicles in China, the European Union also raised the issue of tires of electric vehicles, and there may also be more stringent requirements in this regard in the future.

The important thing is not to aim, but to shoot the overall netizens' public opinion, and the most popular likes are still focused on "trams do not have any advantage", "Japanese hybrid cars are king", "China's electric car bankruptcy has entered the countdown" and so on. It can be said that the mood of Japanese netizens who are pessimistic about China's new energy cars is not different from that of China's bad Japanese cars. Of course, the total collapse only exists in the public opinion of netizens, and the reality will not be so extreme. China's new energy vehicles still lead the world, while Japanese cars are not so easy to fail. For example, Toyota still maintained five consecutive months of growth in China and reported record profits in the third quarter worldwide.

In the field of electric vehicles, Japan's Daily News commented that "there is no advantage in changing electric cars, which leads to the slow popularity of electric cars in Japan." at the same time, it also said that "Japanese car companies have not come up with competitive electric products, so consumers do not feel the advantage."

However, in the author's opinion, these problems raised by Japanese cars also existed in the early stage of the development of electric vehicles in China. The real problem with Japanese electric cars is that Japan has been finding fault with electric cars, while China has been finding ways for electric cars. If we use the analogy of shooting training, Japanese car companies have been "aiming, aiming, aiming." , while Chinese car companies are "aiming, shooting, aiming, shooting." By the time the Japanese car companies began to shoot, they had fallen far behind.

This article is from the official account of Wechat: automobile News Agency (ID:automobile-news), by Xia Zhuang.

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