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NAND Flash price increase, TrendForce expects Q4 product price to rise by 13% in 2023

2024-04-22 Update From: SLTechnology News&Howtos shulou NAV: SLTechnology News&Howtos > IT Information >


Shulou( Report-- December 5 news, TrendForce Group Consulting released a report today, the third quarter of 2023 NAND Flash industry revenue growth of 2.9% month-on-month, is expected to grow by more than 20% in the fourth quarter.

The report said that the main turning point in the changes in the NAND Flash market in the third quarter was Samsung's decision to actively reduce production. Previously, the buyer thought that the visibility of terminal demand was still low, worried about the sluggish peak season of the market, so he maintained a procurement strategy of low inventory and slow delivery. With the sharp reduction in production by the leading suppliers, the buyer's purchasing attitude becomes more positive because of the expected psychological factors that the supply will be significantly reduced.

At the end of the third quarter, NAND Flash's contract negotiations were moving towards a stop-fall or even an increase in prices, leading to a 3% month-on-month increase in NAND Flash shipments in the third quarter, with overall consolidated revenue of $9.229 billion ( Note: currently about 65.895 billion yuan), an increase of about 2.9% from the previous quarter.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, NAND Flash products will increase both in volume and price. It is estimated that the average unit price of the whole product will increase by 13% in the future, and the overall NAND Flash industry revenue is expected to grow by more than 20% month-on-month.

The report also showed that revenue fell in the third quarter, only by two companies, Meixia and Meguiar, while Samsung was basically the same as in the second quarter. For Samsung, although the demand for general-purpose servers continues to be weak, the consumer electronics market has improved, especially the strong demand for high-capacity products for PC and smartphones, which, in addition to inventory replenishment, led to further strategic inventory replenishment, which made Samsung's profit situation out of the trough in the third quarter. Due to the expansion of production cuts in the third quarter, the company's operating goal shifted to actively seeking profits, affecting shipments by 1% from a month earlier, the average sales unit price rebounded by 1%, and NAND Flash revenue in the third quarter was $2.9 billion (currently about 20.706 billion yuan), unchanged from the second quarter.

For Kioxia, the average sales unit price rose 3% in the third quarter, although it benefited from the rebound in wafer contract prices and the early strategic stock of notebook customers, but with the delayed demand for orders from American smartphone brands, shipments decreased by 10% 15% in the third quarter, resulting in NAND Flash revenue falling to $1.34 billion (currently about RMB 9.568 billion), down 8.6% from the previous quarter.

Due to the momentum growth of customer orders in the PC and Mobile markets, coupled with the replenishment of some Enterprise SSD customers' inventory, shipments in the third quarter were the same as those in the second quarter, while the average sales unit price was down 15% from the previous quarter. As a result, third-quarter revenue fell slightly to $1.15 billion (currently about 8.211 billion yuan), down 5.2% from the previous quarter. With the full rebound of quarterly contract prices in the fourth quarter, the momentum of price pursuit has led to order growth, and Micron's revenue is expected to grow by more than 20% in the fourth quarter under the expectation of a rise in both volume and price.

Other companies such as SK & Solidigm (SK hynix & Solidigm) and Western Digital (WDC) have benefited from the recovery in demand in the consumer electronics sector, with higher shipments driving up revenue. For the SK Group, shipments maintained quarterly growth due to the pick-up in demand for high-capacity products from PC and smartphone applications, supporting NAND Flash revenue of about $1.86 billion (currently about RMB 13.28 billion) in the third quarter, an increase of 11.9% from the previous quarter.

Western Digital said that higher-than-expected demand for PC in the third quarter and resilience in the mobile applications (Mobile) and games (Gaming) categories showed that the price cuts were still effective in driving shipments, which in turn boosted the NAND Flash division's revenue to $1.556 billion (currently about 11.11 billion yuan), up 13.0% from the previous month.

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